Though the economy has suffered greatly since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, the Chief Economist with the Business Development Bank of Canada expects the recovery to happen much faster than other recessions.
Pierre Cleroux, who is also the Vice President of Research at BDC, spoke at a virtual forum co-hosted by the Quinte West and Belleville Chambers of Commerce Thursday afternoon.
Cleroux says there are a few reasons for the positive outlook for 2021 calling vaccinations one key point – as more people are vaccinated, more economies are opening up and they expect growth to occur quickly once that happens.
He compared the Ontario manufacturing sector of today compared to the recession of 2008-2009.
“We had a huge decline during the first lockdown but when we reopened the manufacturing sector, well, the level really came back very quickly to the same level before the crisis. It took almost four years in 2008-2009 to come back to the same level.”
He adds the increase in commodity prices like lumber, while not great for shoppers, is great for businesses.
People have also been saving since there were many things they couldn’t do last year so consumers have some cash to spend which many will likely do this year.
Government policies and programs to help Canadians recover from the pandemic is another reason the economy is expected to rebound quickly.
And business investment intentions are on the rise, almost back to pre-pandemic levels.
Cleroux expects Canada to see a six per cent growth in GDP this year.
Talking about what to watch for in the near future, he says working remotely in some form is here to stay.
“Seventy-four per cent of businesses believe that they are going to rely on some tele-working after the crisis. The perception has changed compared to before the pandemic. So we believe that teleworking will be an important factor after the crisis and change the way we work.”
“The number of people in Ontario who are between 15 and 64, this population has increased over the last 10 years by nine per cent. But you see the number of jobs in Ontario which has increased by 16% during this same period of time. The number of jobs is increasing more rapidly than the population we have to work.”
