Despite the most recent local unemployment numbers painting a very rosy picture for the region, the CEO of the Quinte Economic Development Commission says they aren’t putting a lot of stock in them each month.
When Statistics Canada released November’s Labour Force Survey last week, the Belleville Census Metropolitan Area had the lowest unemployment rate of any region in the country at 1.8 per cent and well below the national rate of 6.8 per cent.
But Chris King says the last Labour Force Survey redesign was in 2015 and the Belleville CMA, which includes Belleville, Quinte West, Deseronto-Tyendinaga and Stirling-Rawdon, did not become an official CMA until 2016.
It means StatCan does not have the proper base data for the CMA resulting in significant data variations from month to month including population, unemployment rate and participation rate.
“Because of that sample size, like we see wild fluctuations even in things like population. So for the Belleville CMA, if you look at July of 2024, if you look at the population of what they used, 98,800 as I said the population. November 2024, 77,100.”
But King says the Labour Force Survey is being redesigned again in 2025 and will be based on 2021 census data which should considerably reduce the variability.
Kings adds while he doesn’t believe the local unemployment rate is currently 1.8 per cent, he feels the local labour market right now is more balanced compared to during and immediately after COVID.
There is still a healthy demand for skilled workers.
“And not just manufacturing but across, you know, a number of sectors. So I think the job market’s still healthy. People, if they’re looking for work, there’s jobs out there for them. I think when you look at the recent job fair that the City of Belleville and Quinte West put on, you know, you saw the number of businesses that were participating that were looking to hire people. It’s a good sign.”
Statistics Canada did not indicate when in 2025 they will begin using the redesigned system.
