New polling data released by Liaison Strategies on Wednesday shows the Ontario Liberals leading the Ontario PCs by one point in the Bay of Quinte provincial riding, within the margin of error and a statistical tie.
The poll, commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC), was conducted from September 8 to 9, 2024 using what they call interactive voice response technology.
It surveyed 541 voters in the Bay of Quinte and has a margin of error of +/- 4.21, 19 times out of 20.
The results* described by Liaison as “Bay of Quinte Decided and Learning” are as follows:
- 36% – Sean Kelly (Ontario Liberal)
- 35% – Tyler Allsopp (PC)
- 18% – Amanda Robertson (Ontario NDP)
- 5% – Lori Bothwick (Ontario Greens)
- 6% – Other
*Numbers may not add up 100% due to rounding.
“The Liberals and PCs are now effectively tied. Ontario Liberal vote is up significantly from the last election from 18% to 36%. The Ontario NDP, which were in second place in 2022 with 21% are third in our survey with 18%. Meanwhile, the PC vote is down from 49% to 35% putting them in second place,” principal of Liaison Strategies, David Valentin, said in a release.
“With the Liberals and PCs tied, either party could be successful and it will come down to ground organization and motivating voters in a low turnout environment.”
The by-election for Bay of Quinte is on September 19.
A link to the full report can be found at Liaison Strategies’ website.
